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TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 10 1999
 
IRWIN HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
THE DISSIPATION OF ALL DEEP CONVECTION.  LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS
SUGGEST THAT A FEW WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY STILL
EXIST...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER.  SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 1005 MB AT 18Z...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 KT. AT THAT
TIME THE CENTER OF IRWIN WAS ABOUT 15 NM NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND. 

IRWIN NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING WITH A SHALLOWER LAYER FLOW AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 255/9.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT IRWIN WILL SPIN
DOWN ONLY VERY GRADUALLY AS IT LOSES ITS REMAINING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 18.7N 111.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N 112.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.2N 114.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N 116.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     13/1800Z ...DISSIPATED... 
 
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