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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 20 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF HILARY
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IN FACT IS WEAKENING.
CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
55 KNOTS AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS HILARY MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10.  THIS GENERAL TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
ALTHOUGH HILARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY...INTERESTS IN
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE TROPICAL STORM.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 22.3N 114.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N 116.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 27.0N 116.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 28.0N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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