HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 1999
 
SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT HILARY HAS SLOWED
DOWN A BIT AND HAS TURNED TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COURSE.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/5 KT. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO SHOWS A NORTHWEST HEADING AND
AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OWING TO
THE INITIAL MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST UKMET.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT
...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.  THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN
VICINITY OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 16.9N 112.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N 112.9W    55 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N 113.6W    60 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 115.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W    45 KTS
 
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