HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 17 1999

THE CYCLONE IS STILL TRYING TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT IT IS NEARING THE THRESHOLD OF STORM
STRENGTH.  A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER...BUT BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THE
RATHER SLOW RATE OF DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER SLOW THUS FAR.  SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIMILAR
TO THE SHIPS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND...THE MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A BIT
FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT
CHANGED MUCH.  THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUN SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  IF THIS TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH...IT COULD PULL THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MY TRACK.  THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.   

PASCH 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 16.6N 110.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N 111.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 17.6N 112.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 18.3N 113.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 114.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 116.5W    50 KTS
 
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