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HURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 06 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07.  THIS BRINGS THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE TO WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
INDICATE MOTIONS RANGING BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST TURNS THE HURRICANE WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE
GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS AND BAM MODELS.

THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BUT LOS CABOS RADAR
SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED EYE...EXCEPT IT IS OPEN TO THE NORTH. 
GREG IS APPROACHING COLD SSTS AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF ITS
CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COLD WATER.  SO THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS UP TO 70 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS
BUT EVEN THIS IS NOT LIKELY.

IF THE STRONG WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT BAJA CALIFORNIA COULD MISS THE WORST OF THIS
HURRICANE.  SO FAR THE WINDS AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO HAVE ONLY BEEN UP
TO 12 KNOTS.  THIS WILL BE RESOLVED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 22.1N 109.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 22.7N 110.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 23.2N 111.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 23.6N 112.8W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 23.8N 114.1W    40 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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