HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 1999
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. 
THE INTENSITY IS BEING REDUCED TO 25 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE.  GIVEN
THE COOL SSTS AND THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN NO STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST.  
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS DRIFTED...MOSTLY SOUTHWARD...OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 260/2.  MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SUBTANTIAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANALYZED IN THE AVN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION.  I WILL GO WITH A SLOWER WESTWARD DRIFT UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 22.6N 113.0W    25 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.5N 113.4W    25 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.5N 114.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     26/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     27/1200Z DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN