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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 1999
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY ON THE DECLINE IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS PACKAGE...AND WITH COOLER SSTS AHEAD AND THE CURRENT CLOUD
PATTERN NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

SATELLITE-BASED FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFGW ARE IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/07 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR 
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 24 HRS...
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH BAMM ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. THE
FORECAST BEGINS TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY 36 HRS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...NEAR 22C.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 23.3N 113.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 23.7N 114.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 24.2N 115.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.4N 116.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N 117.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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