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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 23 1999

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS BEEN RELOCATED
FURTHER NORTH AND IS NOW ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS POSITION PLACES IT CLOSE TO THE 24 DEGREE
CELSIUS ISOTHERM AND ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL RAPIDLY
TAKE IT OVER COLDER WATERS. CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS
DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW MAINLY TO
THE SOUTH. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS WITH WEAKENING THEREAFTER AND DISSIPATION AFTER 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
LOCATION BASED ON CLOSER AGREEMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB...
SAB AND GWC. THE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
NORTHWEST TRACK INTO COLDER WATER. THE NEW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH
AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH MAY EQUATE TO AN EVEN
FASTER DEMISE OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
LARSON
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 22.9N 112.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 23.4N 113.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N 115.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N 117.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N 119.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 
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