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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 1999
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS APPARENTLY SLOWED DOWN AND THE CONVECTION IS
COMING BACK.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR WILL SLOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT
ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.  SHIPS FORECAST MODEL
WANTS TO TAKE SYSTEM BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY ARE 30 KNOTS OUT TO 72 HOURS

SEVERAL OF THE TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A SLOWER MOTION AND
IT APPEARS THAT THIS IS OCCURRING.  INITIAL MOTION IS REDUCED TO
250/4.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL ALSO SLOWS THE MOTION AND IS SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.   
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 14.4N 130.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.2N 131.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N 132.9W    30 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.0N 134.1W    30 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 14.0N 137.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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