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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 1999
 
THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FERNANDA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT
8 KNOTS...INITIAL MOTION 255/8...AND IS BEING STEERED BY THE
PREVAILING TRADE WIND FLOW OVER RELATIVELY WARM 26 TO 27 DEGREE
CELSIUS WATERS. ITS CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPORADIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE STILL
OCCURING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE FORECAST HOWEVER
ASSUMES THAT FERNANDA WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN RATHER THAN
REGENERATING.

LARSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 14.6N 129.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.3N 131.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 132.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N 134.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 135.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N 138.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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