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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999
 
FERNANDA HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A CLUSTER OF
DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH FERNANDA IS
BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN TRANSIENT
CONVECTION.
 
FERNANDA IS EXPECETD TO MOVE ON THE SAME GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK ABOUT 7 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED BY
BAM MODELS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT FORECAST TO REINTENSIFY BUT IF IT MOVES SOUTH
ENOUGH...IT WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND REGENERATION MAY
OCCUR.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 15.7N 126.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 127.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 132.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 134.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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