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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999
CORRECTI0N...ADD AUTHORS NAME
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A WELL DEVELOPED 500 NB ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
FERNANDA...AS SEEN IN THE 48 HOUR FORECAST OF THE 06Z AVIATION
MODEL.   THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE INITIAL MOTION
WITH SOME ACCELERATION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
BASED ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD SIGNAL MENTIONED ABOVE.

A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE AFWA ESTIMATE IS
LESS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 35 KTS.  THE FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS THE STORM OVER WARM SSTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES
THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW...SO THIS SYSTEM COULD
PERSIST FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WEAKENING THE STORM TO A
DEPRESSION AT 36 HOURS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 16.5N 125.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N 126.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.4N 127.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 15.9N 131.6W    30 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N 135.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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