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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU AUG 19 1999

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT A
55-KNOT MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...THE ORGANIZATION
AND EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND THE STORM
IS HEADED FOR MARGINAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES.  THEREFORE NO FURTHER
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST.

MOTION REMAINS 290/10.  OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS GENERALLY SHOW A
TURN TO THE WEST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A STRENGTHENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF FERNANDA.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 17.3N 122.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.8N 124.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.3N 126.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.8N 128.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N 135.5W    40 KTS
 
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