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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 19 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FERNANDA...BUT THIS CONVECTION IS NEITHER SYMMETRIC NOR IS IT
ORGANIZED IN WELL DEFINED BANDS.  THE CENTER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
VERY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLUSTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS 45 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIFOR GUIDANCE.  SHIPS
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DUE TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR ONLY
MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL INDICATES SOME WEAKENING.

INITIAL POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES FROM THE AIR
FORCE WEATHER AGENCY...TAFB...AND SAB...YIELDING AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 290/10.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA...SO A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED.  CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 16.9N 121.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.4N 123.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 125.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 127.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 134.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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