HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999

ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E HAS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. MOST NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE TURNS THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS UNDER A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH THE ONLY QUESTION THE LATITUDE AT
WHICH THE TURN WILL OCCUR. THE NOGAPS OFFERS A ALTERNATE
SCENARIO...WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DIGGING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO BREAK THE RIDGE AND MOVE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE WESTWARD
MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CONVECTION...
WHICH IS DISPLACED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS
SUGGESTS EASTERLY SHEAR. THE AVN AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY
DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION GAINS LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED
GAINING WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER WATER. THE SHEAR IS
LIKELY TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND
THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE SYSTEM AND COOLER WATER IS LIKELY TO SLOW
INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THUS...THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW
INTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 14.9N 118.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.4N 120.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.9N 122.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.2N 124.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.5N 127.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N 131.5W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN