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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS GOTTEN BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  A WELL DEFINE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WIND SPEEDS COMPUTED FROM
SEVERAL OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD ELEMENTS GIVE VALUES THAT RANGE FROM
20 TO ALMOST 30 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTING ON THE WESTERN SIDE.  T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED
AND ARE NOW 2.0 FROM BOTH SAB AND MIAMI.  THEREFORE...THE
DISTURBANCE IS UP-GRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION UNTIL IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST...AT WHICH TIME IT SHOULD TAKE MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSORS.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM RATHER SLOWLY.  PART OF
THIS MAY BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS CAUSED BY THE UP-WELLING
FROM THE PASSAGE OF EUGENE AND DORA AS WELL AS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT LEFT IN THEIR WAKE.   
  
JARVINEN
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 14.5N 117.6W    25 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 119.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.6N 121.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 123.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 16.4N 125.8W    45 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 130.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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