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WTPA43 PHNL 140300
TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST FRI AUG 13 1999

LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVES RECONNAISSANCE CONFIRMS THAT EUGENE IS
CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BETTER VIEW OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ON ITS PRESENT TRACK...THE STORM WILL BE WITHIN 290 MILES SOUTH OF
SOUTH POINT ON THE ISLAND OF HAWAII WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE NO STRONGER THAN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT APPROACHES
JOHNSTON ISLAND.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE STORM AND KEEPING IT AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. HABLUTZEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 14.7N 152.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 14.8N 154.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 14.9N 157.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 160.8W    35 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 164.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N 170.0W    30 KTS