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WTPA43 PHNL 122100
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST THU AUG 12 1999

HURRICANE HUNTERS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVES LOCATED THE STORM
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AS A RESULT...THE
TRACK HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SMALLER AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. PROGS SHOW LIGHT SHEARING AHEAD OF
THE STORM. AS A RESULT...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH SHFR...STATISTICAL HURRICANE FORECAST...MODEL.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TAKES EUGENE 240 MILES SOUTH OF HILO OR 185 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH
POINT BY 0800 HST SATURDAY MORNING. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO
BE TIGHTLY GROUPED...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL...WHICH STEERS EUGENE OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PUTS EUGENE CLOSEST TO
LBAR...LIMITED BAROTROPIC...AND BAMD...DEEP BETA ADVECTION MODEL.
HABLUTZEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 14.9N 146.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 15.2N 147.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.7N 150.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 152.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.2N 155.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 161.0W    45 KTS