HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

WTPA43 PHNL 120830
HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST WED AUG 11 1999
 
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COME AND GO AND THERE HAS BEEN
NO DISCERNABLE EYE FOR QUITE AWHILE...EUGENE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR NOTICED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS NOT ENOUGH TO WORK ON EUGENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THEREFORE KEEPS EUGENE AT 70 TO 75 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
BEGINS THE SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS THEREAFTER. SHIPS DATA SAYS THAT
IT WONT BE UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS THAT EUGENE SEES SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/11. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
AN EXTENSION OF THE LAST FORECAST...MOVING EUGENE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
DUE WEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO BE
TIGHTLY GROUPED WITH EVEN LBAR JOINING THE OTHERS. THE ONLY OUTLIER
IS GFDL WHICH TURNS EUGENE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK FAVORING BAMD. CRAIG.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 14.3N 144.3W    75 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.6N 146.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 148.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.4N 151.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.6N 153.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.1N 159.5W    55 KTS