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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999

EUGENE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IRREGULAR CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C.
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT...77 KT...AND 90
KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
THUS REMAINS AT 85 KT.

ALL NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE LBAR...IS CLUSTERED AROUND A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE AVN AND
NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE AN MID/UPPER LEVEL BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF EUGENE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STRONG. THIS INTRODUCES
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STORM WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
OR CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAMD.
 
THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS EUGENE IS CURRENTLY
SUFFERING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR. THE AVN AND NOGAPS BUILD AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE...SUGGESTING THAT SHEAR
SHOULD STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SSTS COOL ONLY BY 1-2C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS
COMBINATION SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER WEAKENING OF EUGENE WILL BE SLOW.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH EUGENE REMAINING A
HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 13.7N 138.7W    85 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 13.8N 140.6W    85 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 14.3N 142.9W    80 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 14.9N 144.9W    75 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 147.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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