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HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999
 
EUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH A MODEST REORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTER SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME
SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE THAT HAS HALTED THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST
CONVECTION AGAIN FORMING NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 95 KT UNTIL A LONGER TERM TREND BECOMES
MORE EVIDENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 260/10.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION.  EUGENE SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD FOR 24-36 HOURS
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  AS
EUGENE NEARS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THERE MAY BE SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 13.5N 134.9W    95 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 13.4N 136.5W    95 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 13.4N 138.7W    95 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 13.7N 140.9W    90 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 14.2N 143.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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