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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999
 
THE IR CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE DISTORTED TO THE
SOUTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN THE SAME AS SIX HOURS AGO.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AND THE FORECAST IS TO 60
KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL GOES A LITTLE
HIGHER BUT THE LACK OF APPARENT RECENT STRENGTHENING IS THE BASIS
FOR CONSERVATISM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/08.  THE STORM IS NEARING THE
LONGITUDE OF MAXIMUM WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE NOGAPS SHOWS A MOSTLY WESTWARD ACCELERATION
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOTION INCREASES TO
ABOUT 10 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS WHICH IS MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 13.3N 123.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 13.7N 124.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 14.1N 125.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 14.6N 127.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 15.0N 129.1W    60 KTS
72HR VT     10/0600Z 15.5N 132.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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