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WTPA42 PHNL 200300
TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM PST THU AUG 19 1999
 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND PHNL INDICATE THAT
DORA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. MODEL
INTENSITY FORECASTS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH SHIFOR SLOWLY WEAKENING
AND GFDL SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM. DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS WARMER WATER...SO RATHER THAN FORECAST DORAS DEMISE...WILL 
KEEP IT A TROPICAL STORM.
 
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT DORA WAS FARTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED...THEREBY MAKING THE 1800Z POSITION A BIT TOO FAR TO THE
EAST. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 290/15 READJUSTS THE SPEED BUT NOT THE
DIRECTION OF MOTION. THE POSITION ESTIMATE WAS BASED ON A FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY GROUPED
TURNING DORA TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS LOWER PRESSURE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK AND IS CLOSEST TO THE THREE
BETA ADVECTION MODELS.

THIS IS THE LAST DISCUSSION FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER. THE NEXT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
OTHER INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL
AGENCY. CRAIG.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 18.3N 178.7E    60 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.4N 176.3E    55 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N 173.6E    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 171.2E    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 25.2N 168.9E    50 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 29.5N 165.0E    55 KTS