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WTPA42 PHNL 080900 HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST WED AUG 18 1999 MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE DORA A GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS PROJECTION HAS BEEN CONSIST AND SEEMS REASONABLE AS IT STARTS APPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER WEST. THE PATH HAS ALREADY SHOWED A VERY GRADUAL MOVEMENT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS WESTWARD MOVE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO SHOW SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF DORA AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL PATH IS ALMOST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS WHICH ALSO MEANS IT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE MORE DYNAMIC MODELS. SLIGHTLY LOWER WATER TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DATELINE SHOULD INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING BY HOUR 72. KAWAMOTO FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.8N 177.1W 65 KTS 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.2N 179.2W 65 KTS 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 178.1E 65 KTS 36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 175.7E 65 KTS 48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.8N 173.6E 65 KTS 72HR VT 22/0600Z 25.4N 169.5E 60 KTS