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WTPA42 PHNL 162100
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST MON AUG 16 1999

ALTHOUGH THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA BRIEFLY REAPPEARED IN SATELLITE
INFRARED IMAGERY...THE SLOW WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KNOTS. LATEST ANIMATION SHOWS A CONTINUED
WEST MOVEMENT. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREMENT AND
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE IMPACT ON JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE 
CURRENT TRACK WILL STILL MOVE THE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF JOHNSTON
ISLAND. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

HABLUTZEL

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 15.5N 160.0W    85 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 15.6N 162.6W    80 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 165.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 16.7N 169.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 17.2N 172.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N 179.0W    55 KTS