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WTPA42 PHNL 161500
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST MON AUG 16 1999
 
HURRICANE DORA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE
MAX WINDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 90 KT. THE EYE HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED
AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISTORTED AS IF SHEARING
IS GOING ON. THE MOVEMENT IS STRAIGHT WESTERLY OR PERHAPS A HAIR
SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE
FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ONE.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREMENT AND
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO MOTION AND
INTENSITY.
 
ROSENDAL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 15.7N 158.6W    90 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 15.9N 161.2W    85 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 16.4N 164.6W    80 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 16.8N 167.8W    75 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N 171.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 176.5W    60 KTS