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WTPA42 PHNL 150300
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST SAT AUG 14 1999
 
HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST RATHER RAPIDLY AT 16 KT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.  A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 24
HOURS.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING THE STORM
ON A WEST TRACK. LATEST MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY GROUPED AND ARE
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
HAS MOVED PAST THE ISLANDS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE NEW TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE. HABLUTZEL/ROSENDAL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 15.3N 148.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.5N 150.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 15.8N 153.9W    70 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.4N 157.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N 161.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 18.5N 166.5W    55 KTS