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WTPA42 PHNL 140900
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST FRI AUG 13 1999
 
HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRAVERSES
INTO COOLER WATER.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE DOWN TO 85 KNOTS. RIDGE STRENGTH NORTH OF DORA CONTINUES TO BE
STRONG AND WILL BE THE OVERWHELMING FACTOR DETERMINING ITS FUTURE
PATH. ALL CURRENT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS A BIT SOUTHWARD
FROM EARLIER ONES...WE HAVE ADJUSTED OUR TRACK ACCORDINGLY. ITS
CURRENT MOVEMENT REMAINS DUE WESTWARD AT A RAPID 20 KTS BUT EXPECT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLOW. ADDITIONALLY THE AVIATION MODEL
PROJECTS SHEARING OF HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES AS DORA APPROACHES 160
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.  MATSUDA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 15.5N 142.9W    85 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.6N 146.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.1N 150.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.9N 154.1W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.7N 157.7W    55 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.1N 164.5W    50 KTS