HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 12 1999
 
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES DORA HAS EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. THE EYE OF DORA... 20 NM IN DIAMETER ...REMAINS WELL
DEFINED WITH A SURROUNDING RING OF -70C CLOUD TOPS. TAFB AND SAB NOW
PUT THE INTENSITY IN 6.5 WHILE OBJECTIVE-BASED ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING 6.1 TO 6.2 OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT 120 KT. INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SST... NEAR 24-25C BY 72 HRS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/14. ALL OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
MAINTAIN THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF DORA THROUGH THE 72
HOURS... RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BAMD AND CLIPPER SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WESTWARD MOTION AND
REPRESENTS A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. THIS TRACK IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH P91E.
 
CAMPOS/YURA/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 15.6N 131.2W   120 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 15.9N 133.3W   115 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 16.3N 136.3W   105 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.6N 139.2W   100 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N 142.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 148.5W    85 KTS
 
NNNN