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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999
 
DORA REMAINS A WELL-DEVELOPED HURRICANE WITH A 20 NM EYE AND GOOD
OUTFLOW.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE 
MAY BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED 
TO 115 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY...MAKING DORA A BORDERLINE CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE.  THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
IS MAINTAINED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
...270/9 KTS.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF DORA SHOULD KEEP
THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE AVN AND BAMD BOTH SHOW A SLIGHTLY SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION WHICH 
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE A SPURIOUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
INITIALIZED IN THE 12Z WHICH ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH P91E.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 14.4N 120.9W   115 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 14.5N 122.4W   110 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 14.7N 124.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 14.9N 126.8W    95 KTS
48HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 134.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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