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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF DORA HAS EXPANDED AND
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC IN THE LAST 6 TO 12 HRS.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 102 AND 115 KTS FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.
THE OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE IS YIELDING 5.7 TO 5.9 OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS.  THUS...THE INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP A NOTCH TO 110 KTS FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  DORA IS LIKELY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK AT 12 HRS...115 KTS...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER...ALONG THE LINES OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KTS.  THE PHILOSOPHY BEHIND THE
TRACK FORECAST OF DORA REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HRS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 24 HRS AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAMD AND P91E.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 14.3N 119.9W   110 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 14.4N 121.5W   115 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 14.7N 123.5W   110 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.1N 125.8W   105 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W    90 KTS
  
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