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TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999
 
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE WEAKENING IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DORA HAS INDUCED A SLOW MOTION
IN DORA...CURRENT MOTION REMAINS AT 295/08.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THE RIDGE TO REBUILD AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND
24 HOURS. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST TRACK MODELS. 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND THE
GFDL FORECAST TRACK.    
 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5/4.0 FROM SAB/MIAMI.  SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS.  SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT
WATER IS WARM AND SHEAR IS LOW ALONG OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. 
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 15.2N 110.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.7N 111.6W    65 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 16.1N 113.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W    75 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 16.6N 117.1W    80 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N 121.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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