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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 26 1999
 
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/10...THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER. 
THIS IS PERHAPS DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  ALL
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH
72 HOURS EXCEPT THE GFDL AND NOGAPS WHICH BOTH DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM
RIGHT AWAY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

COOLER WATERS ARE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT
CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH A SUGGESTION OF
CONVECIVE BANDING EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THIS
IS IN THE FACE OF APPARENT WESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 450 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 18.0N 122.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.7N 123.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.4N 125.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.2N 126.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     29/0000Z DISSIPATED 
 
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