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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS VERY SMALL AND
POORLY DEFINED...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE. 
SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T1.5...25 KT FROM AFWA
TO 3.0...45 KT FROM SAB.  TAFB IS IN THE MIDDLE AT 30 KT.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A SHIP...
ELWB8...LOCATED ABOUT 125 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WINDS
OF ONLY 9 KT.

OUTFLOW IS APPARENT ONLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL STRENGTHENS THE DEPRESSION ONLY SLOWLY AND LEVELS
OFF AT ABOUT 40 KT.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE COMPETING
FLOW AROUND THE ITCZ...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST... 
WITH THE DEPRESSION REACHING STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND HIGH-DENSITY
CLOUD MOTION VECTORS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS SHOW A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. 
HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH
72 HOURS.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 13.9N 134.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 14.3N 136.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.8N 139.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.1N 142.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 145.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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