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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES WHILE
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED. SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING ONLY SO...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS SUGGESTED BY SHIFOR AND SHIPS MODELS.
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. THERE IS ENOUGH
RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...IF
THE SYSTEM SURVIVES. THIS TRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS.
AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 13.7N 132.6W 30 KTS
12HR VT 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.0W 35 KTS
24HR VT 24/0600Z 14.5N 138.0W 35 KTS
36HR VT 24/1800Z 15.0N 141.0W 35 KTS
48HR VT 25/0600Z 15.5N 144.0W 35 KTS
72HR VT 26/0600Z 15.5N 150.0W 35 KTS
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