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FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                  
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999                                            
                                                                    
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE    
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES WHILE   
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED.  SATELLITE        
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A   
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE  ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING ONLY SO...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS SUGGESTED BY SHIFOR AND SHIPS MODELS.      
                                                                   
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15.  THERE IS ENOUGH     
RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...IF
THE SYSTEM SURVIVES.  THIS TRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. 
                                                              
AVILA                                                               
                                                                    
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS                                    
                                                                    
INITIAL     23/0900Z 13.7N 132.6W    30 KTS                         
12HR VT     23/1800Z 14.1N 135.0W    35 KTS                         
24HR VT     24/0600Z 14.5N 138.0W    35 KTS                         
36HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 141.0W    35 KTS                         
48HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 144.0W    35 KTS                         
72HR VT     26/0600Z 15.5N 150.0W    35 KTS                         
                                                                    
                                                                    
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