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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 14 1999
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS LOST ALL ITS DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THERE IS ANY DEFINITE SURFACE CIRCULATION
REMAINING.  SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA
ARE AMAZINGLY CLOSE...CONSIDERING THE WAY THE SYSTEM LOOKS.  INITIAL
MOTION IS 270/16...UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BASED ON
25 KT WINDS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND EARLIER IN THE DAY THE INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 30 KT.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT...
FROM WHICH THE AVIATION MODEL DEVELOPS AN ADDITIONAL VORTEX THAT
TURNS THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR WESTWARD MOTION AT A SOMEWHAT REDUCED SPEED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION...DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION TO A
TROPICAL STORM SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
 
FRANKLIN/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 16.4N 113.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.4N 115.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N 118.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N 123.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 127.5W    30 KTS
 
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