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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 285/16. GUIDANCE
BASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS A WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT DUE TO THE MODEL DEVELOPING
SPURIOUS-LOOKING VORTICES NEAR THE DEPRESSION. BOTH THE AVIATION AND
THE NOGAPS SHOW AN UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE U.S.
WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N111W IS PROVIDING GOOD
OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER COLDER
WATER.

BEVEN/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 17.3N 109.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.9N 112.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.6N 115.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.2N 117.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 124.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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