HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999

AN EYE IS STILL VISIBLE ON INFRARED IMAGES AND THERE IS STILL SOME
FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE HURRICANE.  BEATRIZ HAS BEEN WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY UP TO THIS
POINT...BUT IT IS HEADED FOR SEA SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 23 DEG C IN A
DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE A MORE RAPID DEGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS LIKELY AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
BECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 18.6N 128.4W    80 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.2N 129.7W    75 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.8N 131.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.2N 132.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 134.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 137.0W    25 KTS
 
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