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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 14 1999

BEATRIZ IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES 305/9. CURRENT INTESNITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 90 KT...SO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS SET TO THAT.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST INTO COLDER WATER...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES
DOMINANT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEATRIZ WEAKENING TO A
DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS OVER 22C-23C SSTS.
 
BEVEN/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 17.7N 126.9W    90 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 128.0W    80 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.2N 129.8W    70 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 131.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 133.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 135.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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