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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUL 12 1999 THE STRUCTURE OF BEATRIZ HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT T5.5. HOWEVER...THE EYE LOOKS A LITTLE TIGHTER NOW AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE G0NE UP A BIT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 105 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS IMPROVED...AND A BIT MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS AT 105 KT FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/10. TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...WITH NOGAPS AND GFDL SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND THE BAM MODELS ESSENTIALLY WEST. THE AVN BRINGS BEATRIZ TO A HALT AFTER 48 HOURS. HIGH-DENSITY WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF BEATRIZ THAT SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FRANKLIN/GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.6N 120.8W 105 KTS 12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.9N 122.4W 105 KTS 24HR VT 14/0000Z 15.2N 124.4W 100 KTS 36HR VT 14/1200Z 15.7N 126.4W 95 KTS 48HR VT 15/0000Z 16.5N 128.5W 85 KTS 72HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 131.5W 75 KTS NNNN