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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 12 1999
 
THE STRUCTURE OF BEATRIZ HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS...AND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT T5.5.  HOWEVER...THE EYE LOOKS A LITTLE TIGHTER NOW AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE G0NE UP A BIT SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 105 KT.  THE
OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS IMPROVED...AND A BIT MORE STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS AT 105
KT FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/10.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS RATHER
DIVERGENT...WITH NOGAPS AND GFDL SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
AND THE BAM MODELS ESSENTIALLY WEST.  THE AVN BRINGS BEATRIZ TO A
HALT AFTER 48 HOURS.  HIGH-DENSITY WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF BEATRIZ THAT SHOULD
KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FRANKLIN/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 14.6N 120.8W   105 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.9N 122.4W   105 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.2N 124.4W   100 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 15.7N 126.4W    95 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 128.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 131.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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