HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 12 1999

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 10Z INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF
BEATRIZ HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT...AND THE SURROUNDING DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS DUE
TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR A PEAKING OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH COLDER WATER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T5.5
FROM SAB AND T5.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH THROUGH 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO
COLDER WATER AND POSSIBLE SHEAR. ANY MOTION NORTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK WOULD LIKELY CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING OVER COLDER
WATER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SCATTERED
AROUND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH THE BAMS...BAMM...AND
P91E MORE TO THE WEST AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE 06Z GFDL IS TO THE RIGHT OF ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A
NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 12 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO SOON BASED ON
THE STRONG RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VARIOUS MODEL
HEIGHT FIELDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR...BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24
HOURS AND A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER. SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS. 
 
BEVEN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 14.3N 118.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.5N 120.4W    90 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 122.7W    90 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.4N 124.9W    90 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 127.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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