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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 12 1999

BEATRIZ REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A 10-15 N MI DIAMETER EYE
EMBEDDED IN -60 TO -70C CLOUD TOPS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS
STRONG EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.

MOTION IS WESTWARD NEAR 10 KNOTS.  DEEP-LAYER MEAN STEERING FORECAST
BY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL IS WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WESTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
PRESUMABLY DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ALONG
125W/130W.  HOWEVER THIS WEAKNESS MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE STEERING.

LATEST ERS-2 SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM NAVY FLEET NUMERICAL SHOW THAT
THE WIND RADII ESTIMATES IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES MAY HAVE BEEN TOO
LARGE...SO THE 34- AND 50-KNOT RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 14.1N 117.9W    90 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.1N 119.4W    95 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 121.7W    95 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 129.5W    75 KTS
 
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