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HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUL 11 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET SHOW
A WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE REST ARE DUE WESTWARD.  THIS
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF BETRIZ AS SEEN IN THE 06Z
AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE
FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC AND MAX WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. 
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER SYMMETRIC CDO PATTERN BUT
NO EYE YET.  THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 14.4N 115.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W    75 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.8N 124.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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