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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH PROVIDING THE STEERING.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS
AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH COULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN THE SAME AT 3.0 T NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BACKS OFF
ABOUT 5 KNOTS IN ITS FORECAST AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
THIS IS BASED ON THE INTENSITY TREND HAVING LEVELED OFF OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LOOKS SYMMETRIC WITH AMPLE
CONVECTION AND BANDING SUCH THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL FOR
INTENSIFICATION.

US NAVY FNMOC SCATTEROMETER WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST WIND RADII ARE
SMALLER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY VALUES WHICH HAVE BEEN REDUCED.

LAWRENCE 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 14.6N 109.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.0N 111.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N 113.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W    65 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 117.2W    65 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 16.0N 123.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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