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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 1999

ADRIAN HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR
MORE. IT IS BASICALLY A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER COOL
WATERS AND TOWARD A LARGE SCALE DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND
ARE NOT EVEN LOWER BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY CONSTRAINTS. IT IS KNOWN
THAT THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WAS NOT DESIGNED FOR EASTERN PACIFIC
SWIRLS.  LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION CLOUD MOTION VECTORS FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 20 KNOTS WITH
A FEW SPOTS OF 30 KNOTS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE PROBABLY WEAKER
SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS STABLE.  ADRIAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AS SUGGESTED BY BAM SHALLOW...UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...THESE SWIRLS COULD LAST FOR
DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED.   
 
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 18.6N 113.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W    25 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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