HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 1999
 
INFRARED AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE TRACK REMAINS
ON A 290 DEGREE HEADING AT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED OF 14 KNOTS. 
THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  ALL BUT THE
GFDL SHOW A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH 72
HOURS...EXCEPT THE BAM MODELS WHICH ACQUIRE A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT
AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO TURN THE STORM
NORTHWARD.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL AGAIN HAS A RIDGE PERSISTING TO
THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
72 HOURS.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH IT IS A BIT SPREAD
OUT AND NOT TOO SYMMETRIC.  HOWEVER THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWS A
NICE CDO FEATURE AND A HINT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE WHICH COULD BE MY
IMAGINATION.  IN ANY CASE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.5 T
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC AND THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASE TO
55 KNOTS.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR...BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL AND ON CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES THE WIND SPEED TO 80
KNOTS IN 36 HOURS...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND SHIFOR
MODELS.

AGAIN...THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
STORM CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 15.8N 105.3W    55 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 107.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 17.4N 109.8W    75 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 112.2W    80 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W    70 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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