HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 1999
 
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE HAS RELAXED TODAY...WITH OUTFLOW
DEVELOPING IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUADRANT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SSM/I WINDS SPEED INFORMATION INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN.  

THE CENTER OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY DENSE OVERCAST ALL
DAY...BUT SSM/I IMAGERY AND A FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY
ARE SHOWING THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN REORGANIZING NORTH OF OUR
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
BUT OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE AVN MODEL INITIAL ANALYSIS HAS
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF ADRIAN WHICH PROBABLY DOES NOT
EXIST.  THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH TAKES THE STORM VERY CLOSE TO THE
MEXICAN COAST...MAY BE REACTING TO THIS VORTEX.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 48
HOURS.  ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADRIAN WILL MAKE
LANDFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS MAY AFFECT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRING ADRIAN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN 48 HOURS...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. 

FRANKLIN/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 14.5N 101.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 102.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 15.6N 104.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.3N 106.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.0N 108.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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