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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 1999
 
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE  60 MILES
APART...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 13 AND 14 NORTH...WHILE SSMI IMAGERY FROM
NRL/MONTEREY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE CLOSER TO 12 DEGREES
NORTH.  UNTIL WE HAVE MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY TODAY WE ARE GUIDED BY
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
285/9.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL MAKE LANDFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS MAY
AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...35 KT...WHILE AIR
FORCE WEATHER AGENCY HAS 1.5.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT
FOR THIS PACKAGE...HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY.  THERE IS SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IT APPEARS TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE TD TO
65 KT IN 72 HOURS.

FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 13.4N  99.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 13.8N 100.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.3N 102.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 15.5N 107.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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