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TROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT NOV 20 1999
 
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE SHEARED TROPICAL STORM IS LARGE AND
DIFFUSE AND COULD BE LOCATED ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 TO 80 N MI OF THE
GIVEN INITIAL POSITION.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WITH
A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE STORM TO
SOUTH AMERICA. A SHIP LOCATED IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION REPORTED
35-KNOT WINDS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS LENNY MOVES
TOWARD AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 110/6...A TRACK WHICH HAS NOT
BEEN FORECAST BY ANY MODEL SO FAR.  BECAUSE UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A CONTINUED GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION OF THE STORM
IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...I HAVE NO CHOICE
BUT FORECAST A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY TRACK
MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 16.0N  59.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.7N  58.6W    50 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N  57.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N  56.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N  55.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 24.5N  52.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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