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TROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI NOV 19 1999
 
THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WIND AT
COOLIDGE AIRPORT ON ANTIGUA HAS SHIFTED FROM 220/10 TO 100/08 DURING
THE PAST HOUR WHICH INDICATES THAT THE CENTER PASSED VERY CLOSE TO
THIS LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/03.  THE GUIDANCE
...WHICH IS STILL BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS IS DIVERGENT.  THE
NOGAPS SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET SHOWS A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL IS
NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  THE AVIATION IS DUE NORTHWARD AT
ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWING A SLOW EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
FOR 72 HOURS.  BUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF MOTION COULD BE QUITE SLOW
AND IT COULD BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS COME
TO AN END OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER RATHER CLOSE TO GUADELOPE
...BUT THE WEATHER IS NOT CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CENTER AND THE
WEATHER AT GUADELOUPE AND FURTHER SOUTH IS NOT LIKELY TO GET ANY
WORSE THAN IT HAS BEEN.
 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A TREMENDOUS BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS COULD
DELAY THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN WEAKENING LENNY THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 17.1N  61.8W    60 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N  61.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.1N  60.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N  59.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 19.0N  58.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.5N  56.5W    35 KTS
  
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